Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x084c…3e6f politics 15 markets active 22h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$64 (-12%) realized −$34 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$16
politics 35% −$34
sports 5% −$12
other 1% $0
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.0% -4.1% 50% 50% -4.4%
≤30d 12 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 42% -16.6%
≤90d 12 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 42% -16.6%
all 12 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 42% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 42% -16.6%
10% -22.9% 33% -24.6%
15% -30.3% 25% -31.9%
20% -37.2% 25% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage28d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $8 +$15 +176%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $101 −$100 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 29 $134 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $124 +$9 +8%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $72 +$52 +72%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $15 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 21¢ $4 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 6d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $8 13d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid SELL Yes $0 14d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid SELL Yes $0 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $38 15d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 86¢ $101 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? BUY No 97¢ $134 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $124 26d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 57¢ $66 28d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 28d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? SELL Down 81¢ $1 28d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? BUY Down 71¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $4.27 · 28 history records