Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:56:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x084f…8b8e
other · 550 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$7,086 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,508 · open −$1,422
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,230
Realized+$8,508
Unrealized−$1,422
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses77 / 442
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions31
Markets (closed)519 / 550
History coverage114d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 31 History 519 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$52
14 days+$800
30 days+$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $2,000 $3,394 +$1,394 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $2,000 $606 −$1,394 (-70%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $90 $79 −$11 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 30¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 48¢ 26¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-47%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Mauricio Ruffy 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $102 +$19 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 +$5 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $10 +$6 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $5 +$4 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$4 +44%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 06 $53 +$15 +29%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$7 +67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 03 $2,012 +$45 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $50 +$32 +65%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,076 +$322 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $72 +$348 +483%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $462 +$18 +4%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $101 −$31 -30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 26 $1,831 −$859 -47%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $80 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 23 $64 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 23 $8 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 23 $9 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 23 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 22 $3,748 +$296 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 21 $14,858 +$63 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 21 $3,593 +$88 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 12 $7,367 +$50 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $2 +$3 +156%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $2 +$1 +61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 11 $253 +$32 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 11 $50 −$2 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 11 $1,003 −$74 -7%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $5 +$4 +70%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$3 +27%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $10 +$7 +65%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $10 +$6 +60%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $10 +$6 +62%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $10 +$5 +50%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 10 $10 +$2 +17%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% +$8,183
other 22% +$1,154
finance 4% −$323
world 4% −$93
tech 3% −$79
sports 3% −$250
politics 3% −$1,480
weather 0% −$16
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 58¢ $121 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $101 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $10 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $10 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 84¢ $10 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 53¢ $5 6d
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P BUY Joanderson Brito 61¢ $5 6d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 62¢ $10 6d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Bryce Mitchell 53¢ $5 6d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 51¢ $5 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 69¢ $68 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $92 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.0% +14.9% 82% 82% +11.5%
≤30d 27 +27.2% +15.1% 67% 44% -8.3%
≤90d 187 -7.5% -16.3% 30% 17% -8.0%
all 519 -8.0% -16.8% 15% 7% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 7% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 6% -14.2%
15% -32.0% 4% -22.5%
20% -38.7% 3% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,229.52 · official $5,229.52 (match) · 3500 history records