Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
08 0x0850…19d6 other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$30
politics 12% −$3
sports 7% +$27
tech 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 +3.8% -6.1% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 106 +3.8% -6.1% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 8% -9.6%
10% -15.1% 8% -18.2%
15% -23.3% 8% -26.1%
20% -30.8% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage86d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $112 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $196 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $201 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $368 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $351 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 10 $173 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $174 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $324 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $184 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $374 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $375 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $487 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $184 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $345 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $182 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $358 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 17 $344 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $329 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $38 3h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 27h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $113 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 16d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 16d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $66 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $174 28d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $174 28d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $166 29d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $166 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.55 · official $112.55 (match) · 306 history records