Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:10:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
08 0x0850…cb8c sports 271 markets active 0h ago coverage 778d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,993 (-6%) realized −$10,702 · open −$291
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%99W / 149L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$708per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$9,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$597
7 days−$668
14 days+$1,531
30 days−$892
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$21,322
finance 23% +$12,538
sports 18% −$2,075
other 14% +$176
crypto 1% −$870
economics 0% +$118
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% −$50
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +25.9% +13.9% 62% 62% -15.7%
≤30d 61 +22.7% +11.0% 51% 51% -12.0%
≤90d 124 -3.0% -12.2% 40% 39% -3.9%
all 248 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 36% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 36% -15.0%
10% -25.1% 33% -23.2%
15% -32.4% 31% -30.6%
20% -39.0% 25% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$544) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$451 vs −$380 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

778d coverage
Net worth$9,487
Realized−$10,702
Unrealized−$291
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses99 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions22
Markets (closed)248 / 271
History coverage778d
Avg bet$708
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,258 $2,157 −$101 (-4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? No 74¢ 72¢ $1,050 $1,015 −$35 (-3%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 42¢ 42¢ $1,000 $1,007 +$7 (+1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1,000 $983 −$18 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $580 $830 +$250 (+43%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $1,000 $795 −$205 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 60¢ 60¢ $728 $722 −$6 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $456 $498 +$42 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $580 $403 −$177 (-30%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $228 $223 −$5 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $116 $164 +$48 (+41%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 13¢ $70 $110 +$40 (+57%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $116 $99 −$17 (-14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $116 $96 −$20 (-17%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $90 $96 +$6 (+6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $116 $78 −$38 (-32%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $58 $64 +$6 (+10%)
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $58 $37 −$21 (-36%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $58 $22 −$36 (-62%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $36 +$89 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $36 +$93 +259%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $763 −$750 -98%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $111 +$51 +46%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $71 +$92 +129%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $101 +$43 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,020 +$980 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,515 −$1,490 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $585 +$240 +41%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $959 −$945 -98%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $192 +$74 +39%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $702 −$690 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $348 −$340 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $968 +$365 +38%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $172 −$170 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $544 +$645 +119%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $376 +$484 +129%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $848 +$370 +44%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $335 +$382 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $443 −$440 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,477 +$253 +17%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $638 +$487 +76%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $101 +$51 +51%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,601 +$464 +29%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $578 −$570 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,281 −$1,270 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,105 +$3,395 +307%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,235 +$179 +14%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $478 −$470 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $895 +$188 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $311 −$305 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $442 −$435 -98%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $88 −$86 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $478 +$102 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $557 +$374 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $601 +$281 +47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $763 +$91 +12%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $791 −$785 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $497 +$483 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $997 −$990 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $185 +$2,669 +1442%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $917 −$900 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,204 −$1,180 -98%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $904 −$890 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 11m
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $51 26m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 60¢ $736 29m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 99¢ $128 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 27¢ $36 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $60 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $234 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $234 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 74¢ $1,058 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $763 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $1,515 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $235 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $814 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $58 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $61 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $202 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $303 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,486.51 · official $9,489.06 (match) · 1869 history records