Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0851…1e67 other 51 markets active 5h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate18%9W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 79% −$14
politics 14% −$6
other 4% +$3
world 1% +$1
sports 1% −$41
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -6.3% -15.2% 15% 3% -12.1%
all 50 -5.0% -14.0% 18% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -22.2% 2% -18.5%
15% -29.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.6% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses9 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage592d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $58 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $44 +$1 +3%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $2 +$3 +146%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $22 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $13,549 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $257 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $858 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 4h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 7h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 30h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 34h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.07 · official $36.07 (match) · 224 history records