Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0852…5f9a crypto 1011 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$245 (-1%) realized −$244 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%630W / 380L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day86.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$1
14 days−$1,106
30 days−$830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$830
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +0.7% -8.9% 77% 55% -9.6%
≤30d 1010 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 40% -12.1%
≤90d 1010 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 40% -12.1%
all 1010 +0.1% -9.5% 62% 40% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 40% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 29% -20.6%
15% -26.0% 16% -28.2%
20% -33.3% 9% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$244
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses630 / 380
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1010 / 1011
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day86.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1010 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 74¢ 70¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$24 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $12 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.57 · official $7.42 · 3500 history records