Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0854…a0ab crypto 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-5%) realized −$76 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate69%161W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day264.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$76
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$45
sports 2% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -9.4% -18.0% 69% 61% -14.4%
≤30d 234 -9.4% -18.0% 69% 61% -14.4%
≤90d 234 -9.4% -18.0% 69% 61% -14.4%
all 234 -9.4% -18.0% 69% 61% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover264.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 61% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 44% -22.6%
15% -33.0% 15% -30.1%
20% -39.6% 7% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses161 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day264.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 77¢ 56¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.77 · official $5.25 (match) · 589 history records