Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0859…9d19 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$88 (+1%) realized −$106 · open +$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%20W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$455per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$2,829
other 13% −$459
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-82.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -98.6% -98.8% 1% 0% -79.5%
≤30d 77 -93.5% -94.1% 6% 0% -46.2%
≤90d 104 -80.7% -82.5% 19% 0% -32.7%
all 104 -80.7% -82.5% 19% 0% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.5% 0% -32.7%
10% -84.2% 0% -39.1%
15% -85.7% 0% -45.0%
20% -87.1% 0% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$47 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$194
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses20 / 84
Open positions32
Markets (closed)104 / 33
History coverage91d
Avg bet$455
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $7 $92 +$85 (+1260%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 21¢ $7 $85 +$78 (+1147%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $7 $42 +$36 (+525%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $7 $41 +$34 (+507%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $7 $25 +$18 (+267%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $7 $22 +$16 (+229%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $7 $20 +$14 (+199%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+116%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+39%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-32%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-32%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-67%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-73%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 13? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 12? Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $130 12d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 23d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 26d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 34d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $128 40d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $127 47d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $125 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 98¢ $123 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $123 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $123 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $122 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $122 74d
Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $122 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $122 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $122 77d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $122 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $121 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $121 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $110 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? SELL No 100¢ $29 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? SELL No 100¢ $100 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? SELL No 100¢ $10 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? SELL No 100¢ $14 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? SELL No 100¢ $42 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? SELL No 100¢ $100 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? SELL No 100¢ $3 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? SELL No 100¢ $6 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534.31 · official $534.35 (match) · 333 history records