Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x085b…579d sports 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
politics 24% −$2
other 12% $0
economics 11% −$1
crypto 9% −$1
world 8% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 160 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage165d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $87 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 14 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $42 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $42 14d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $42 15d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $46 26d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $46 27d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $44 34d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $44 35d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $46 120d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $46 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $42 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 120d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $45 120d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $45 120d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $41 120d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $41 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 120d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 120d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 120d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 120d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 120d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 120d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 120d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 120d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $43 120d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $43 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 465 history records