Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
08 0x085e…da0b sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$237 (+17%) realized +$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$461
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.6% +11.8% 57% 57% +24.2%
≤30d 7 +23.6% +11.8% 57% 57% +24.2%
≤90d 7 +23.6% +11.8% 57% 57% +24.2%
all 7 +23.6% +11.8% 57% 57% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 57% +24.2%
10% +1.1% 57% +12.3%
15% -8.7% 57% +1.4%
20% -17.6% 57% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$95 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $354 +$223 +63%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 27 $202 −$186 -92%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $25 +$30 +118%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 26 $304 +$224 +74%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $4 $0 -8%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $246 +$269 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $578 24m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $354 1h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 5¢ $16 1h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 59¢ $202 2h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY 40¢ $100 4h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P BUY Johnny Speeds 62¢ $101 4h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 AND Colorado Rockies vs. Mi BUY 9¢ $25 22h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P SELL ex-Sashi Academy 100¢ $55 23h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 45¢ $25 25h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $304 43h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 42¢ $4 43h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 43h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $515 43h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $148 46h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $98 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records