Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
08 0x085f…c468 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$68
14 days+$79
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$6
other 4% −$20
crypto 3% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +29.0% +16.7% 58% 58% +1.8%
≤30d 34 +20.8% +9.3% 53% 53% -4.5%
≤90d 37 +17.0% +5.8% 51% 49% -14.0%
all 39 +17.4% +6.2% 54% 51% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 51% -7.2%
10% -3.9% 41% -16.1%
15% -13.2% 36% -24.2%
20% -21.7% 26% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage105d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$34 +130%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $53 −$20 -38%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $8 +$4 +54%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$2 -41%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$1 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $53 +$14 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$10 +325%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $27 +$14 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$2 -21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $65 +$14 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 −$16 -75%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $43 +$8 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $52 −$21 -41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$9 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $7 +$3 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$4 +197%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $6 +$7 +128%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $84 −$18 -22%
Andorra vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 May 29 $6 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5 May 26 $7 −$3 -46%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 26 $4 +$3 +86%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 24 $19 −$18 -98%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 24 $35 −$17 -47%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $66 −$30 -45%
Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $56 +$10 +19%
Ivashka vs. Biryukov: Match O/U 21.5 May 23 $9 +$6 +69%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $304 −$95 -31%
Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $10 −$5 -53%
Madrid Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Tereza Valentova Apr 22 $9 $0 +4%
FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5 Mar 06 $72 +$29 +41%
FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5 Mar 06 $653 +$74 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $33 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $53 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 30h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 64¢ $8 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $3 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $50 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $51 37h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $53 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $3 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 91¢ $65 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $27 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $7 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $9 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $65 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 16¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $21 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 81¢ $19 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $43 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records