Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0860…123b sports 67 markets active 2d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-11%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$88
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$19
other 29% −$67
crypto 11% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 36% -21.3%
≤30d 60 -12.2% -20.6% 45% 37% -20.5%
≤90d 67 -12.3% -20.6% 46% 34% -20.8%
all 67 -12.3% -20.6% 46% 34% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 34% -20.8%
10% -28.2% 21% -28.4%
15% -35.1% 15% -35.3%
20% -41.5% 12% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage78d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$15 +76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 −$50 -93%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 −$4 -19%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $45 +$3 +7%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$3 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $74 +$11 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34 +$18 +53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $37 +$9 +23%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$22 +142%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 +$13 +52%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$6 +54%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -86%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 +$3 +15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$11 +139%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $17 −$16 -94%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $23 −$2 -8%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$4 +25%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $9 −$4 -41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 11¢ $2 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $4 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $4 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal $1 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $3 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 30¢ $2 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $2 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $20 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 19¢ $2 3d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 93¢ $24 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $23 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 70¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $5 3d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $20 3d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 76¢ $24 3d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $25 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 54¢ $10 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 44¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records