Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0862…dc29 sports 762 markets active 11h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,235 (-6%) realized −$5,436 · open +$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%315W / 481L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day103.1pace
Fees−$1,236est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$556now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,477
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 293 -55.7% -60.0% 22% 21% -33.9%
≤30d 796 -14.0% -22.2% 40% 37% -11.3%
≤90d 796 -14.0% -22.2% 40% 37% -11.3%
all 796 -14.0% -22.2% 40% 37% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 37% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 32% -19.8%
15% -36.5% 29% -27.5%
20% -42.7% 24% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$63 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$556
Realized−$5,436
Unrealized+$201
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses315 / 481
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$1,236
Open positions2
Markets (closed)796 / 762
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$118
Trades / day103.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 59¢ 100¢ $278 $473 +$195 (+70%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $60 $52 −$8 (-14%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 62¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Sofya Lansere Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO3) - LFL Playoffs Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters E Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ch Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Tunis: Joel Schwaerzler vs Federico Cina Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Pla Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Grigoriy Lomakin vs Alex Hernandez Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South Amer Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenge Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Huzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Diletta Cherubini Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Shymkent 2: Mathys Erhard vs Andrej Nedic Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Ugo Blanchet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bubliki vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Cordoba: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Crashers (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Ramboot Club vs KPI Gaming (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$8 +65%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $27 +$13 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $236 +$19 +8%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $96 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $76 14h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 67¢ $27 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $5 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $5 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $31 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $24 16h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $29 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 38¢ $98 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $90 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 60¢ $19 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 46¢ $119 20h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.32 · official $556.32 (match) · 3500 history records