Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0865…3d2c sports 316 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$333 (-7%) realized −$330 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%150W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days+$89
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$67
other 27% −$338
crypto 11% +$43
weather 5% −$45
world 5% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 50% +3.1%
≤30d 9 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 44% -15.8%
≤90d 35 -15.9% -23.9% 49% 49% -14.4%
all 309 -13.1% -21.3% 49% 40% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 40% -16.3%
10% -28.9% 34% -24.3%
15% -35.7% 28% -31.6%
20% -42.0% 22% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$330
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses150 / 159
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)309 / 316
History coverage189d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $169 $168 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 +$18 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $198 +$139 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $75 −$74 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $169 +$105 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $144 −$143 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 28 $83 −$83 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 28 $158 −$158 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 28 $40 +$43 +108%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Mar 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 26 $50 +$38 +75%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Mar 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs PARIVISION (BO1) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 25 $14 +$6 +41%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 25 $181 +$49 +27%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 25 $189 +$47 +25%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Mar 25 $36 +$13 +35%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Mar 25 $50 −$5 -11%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 25 $80 −$13 -17%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 25 $100 +$24 +24%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 24 $20 +$12 +58%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 24 $150 +$103 +68%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A Mar 24 $136 +$64 +47%
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $20 +$35 +178%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 24 $70 +$47 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 23? Mar 23 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 23? Mar 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 22? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 22 Mar 23 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 22 Mar 23 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on March 22? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $4 +$5 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 22? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 22? Mar 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on March 22? Mar 22 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 23? Mar 22 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 22? Mar 22 $9 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 21? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 21? Mar 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or higher on March 2 Mar 21 $3 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on BUY 1¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $11 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $182 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY 2¢ $10 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026- BUY 1¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $198 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $75 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $169 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $57 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $144 7d
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs BUY Aurora 56¢ $83 85d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $88 86d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $88 86d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast BUY Yangon Galacticos 53¢ $70 87d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $70 87d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs BUY Xtreme Gaming 48¢ $40 87d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs BUY Aurora 52¢ $50 87d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 57¢ $50 87d
Rockets vs. Timberwolves BUY Rockets 47¢ $30 87d
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Level UP 40¢ $21 87d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs PARIVISION (BO1) - ESL One Birmingham Group A BUY GamerLegion 34¢ $20 87d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $20 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.65 · official $346.64 · 873 history records