Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0869…c3fd sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$705 (+16%) realized +$758 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$351
14 days+$721
30 days+$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$291
other 29% +$606
politics 15% −$168
crypto 4% −$114
economics 1% +$25
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.6% -17.3% 50% 33% +28.3%
≤30d 10 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 40% +42.4%
≤90d 10 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 40% +42.4%
all 32 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 47% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 47% +5.4%
10% -15.7% 44% -4.7%
15% -23.8% 38% -13.9%
20% -31.3% 31% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$66 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$758
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage262d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $180 $127 −$53 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $304 +$295 +97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 +$242 +296%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $174 +$252 +145%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $144 −$104 -72%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 14 $300 −$236 -79%
Nets vs. Pistons Feb 01 $56 −$56 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 28 $299 −$243 -81%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jan 16 $224 +$60 +27%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jan 16 $260 −$35 -13%
Thunder vs. Rockets Jan 16 $254 +$149 +59%
Grizzlies vs. Magic Jan 15 $165 +$89 +54%
Nets vs. Pelicans Jan 15 $100 −$10 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $60 +$25 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 18 $170 +$42 +25%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $74 −$74 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $20 +$30 +152%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Nov 09 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 07 $40 +$45 +112%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $183 +$26 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 1? Oct 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $217 +$174 +80%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $297 +$121 +41%
Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12? Oct 13 $40 +$26 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 9? Oct 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 3m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $142 28m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $599 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $51 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $51 30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $363 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $324 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $426 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $123 10d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $40 10d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $41 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 10d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL Yes 15¢ $63 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 70¢ $300 137d
Nets vs. Pistons BUY Nets 17¢ $56 146d
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards SELL Trail Blazers 13¢ $56 150d
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards BUY Trail Blazers 69¢ $299 151d
Knicks vs. Warriors SELL Warriors 100¢ $165 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.79 · official $126.79 (match) · 70 history records