Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
08 0x086c…50bb sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$666 (+10%) realized +$703 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,065
7 days+$1,065
14 days+$618
30 days+$618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$779
crypto 6% −$149
other 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +68.7% +52.6% 55% 55% +47.2%
≤30d 25 +35.8% +22.8% 56% 56% +2.3%
≤90d 25 +35.8% +22.8% 56% 56% +2.3%
all 25 +35.8% +22.8% 56% 56% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.8% 56% +2.3%
10% +11.1% 56% -7.5%
15% +0.3% 52% -16.4%
20% -9.5% 52% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$220 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,813
Realized+$703
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions11
Markets (closed)25 / 36
History coverage11d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 26¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Over 24¢ 22¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$63 +239%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $102 +$352 +344%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $204 +$337 +165%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $276 +$437 +158%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 +$254 +248%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $305 +$308 +101%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $597 −$586 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $406 −$400 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $209 −$200 -96%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $204 +$384 +188%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$111 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$189 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$209 +103%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $237 +$153 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$24 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $102 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $204 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $153 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 13h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $204 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 18h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 18h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 38¢ $276 18h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 45h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 45h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $304 45h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $305 45h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $36 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $597 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $406 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $588 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,812.69 · official $1,812.69 (match) · 53 history records