Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0872…8cbf sports 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$333 (+33%) realized +$333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%18W / 52L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$352
crypto 42% −$177
other 4% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +4.9% -5.1% 26% 26% +5.2%
≤30d 70 +4.9% -5.1% 26% 26% +5.2%
≤90d 70 +4.9% -5.1% 26% 26% +5.2%
all 70 +4.9% -5.1% 26% 26% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 26% +5.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 26% -4.8%
15% -22.4% 23% -14.0%
20% -30.0% 21% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$12 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 52
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $15 +$7 +43%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $13 +$12 +93%
Will Karmine Corp win MSI 2026? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +31%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $26 +$74 +291%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $13 −$13 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $9 +$91 +980%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $15 +$60 +388%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$17 +165%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$7 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $53 −$52 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $10 −$9 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $8 −$7 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $6 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$2 -10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$5 -21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 +$35 +172%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $16 +$70 +430%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $9 +$102 +1115%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 46¢ $22 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 1h
Will Karmine Corp win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $13 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $15 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $12 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 8¢ $8 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 4¢ $9 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $5 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $14 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $24 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $8 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $7 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $22 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $6 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $9 28h
Will Karmine Corp win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records