Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0876…579f other 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%17W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$7
other 26% −$7
politics 18% −$3
crypto 8% +$1
world 6% −$2
economics 5% −$1
culture 5% −$7
finance 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 71 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 200 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses17 / 183
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage166d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $38 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 18 $31 $0 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 13 $38 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 12? Apr 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 08 $35 $0 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $42 $0 -1%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $130 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $34 6h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 91¢ $27 7d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 8d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $38 20d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $38 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $31 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $31 33d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $30 67d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $30 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 96¢ $30 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 95¢ $30 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 94¢ $37 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 94¢ $38 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 68d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $30 68d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $30 69d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $40 69d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $40 69d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 12? SELL No 94¢ $38 69d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 12? BUY No 95¢ $38 69d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $39 69d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $11 69d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $28 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $31 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $32 69d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $33 69d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $33 69d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $35 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 711 history records