Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
08 0x087a…bb87 other 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-2%) realized −$11 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%30W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$357
14 days+$216
30 days+$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$524
sports 28% +$483
crypto 3% +$24
world 2% +$56
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +3.9% -6.0% 21% 21% +22.3%
≤30d 75 +17.8% +6.6% 23% 23% +0.9%
≤90d 85 +10.5% -0.1% 24% 24% +0.4%
all 139 -10.6% -19.1% 22% 22% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 22% -6.6%
10% -26.8% 21% -15.5%
15% -33.9% 20% -23.7%
20% -40.4% 20% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$14 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses30 / 109
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
History coverage232d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-46%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $102 +$118 +116%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $36 +$81 +226%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$226 +442%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $31 +$130 +422%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $20 +$51 +249%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 +$149 +365%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$161 +785%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $21 +$133 +649%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$35 +344%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $220 23m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $36 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 4d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 83¢ $160 4d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.33 · official $19.33 (match) · 186 history records