Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
08 0x087d…b872 other 60 markets active 3h ago coverage 64d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$134,463 (+35%) realized +$103,994 · open +$30,469
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%33W / 22L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$6,352per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1,944est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$53,979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27,671
7 days+$29,043
14 days+$11,294
30 days+$72,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$149,016
sports 36% −$3,300
politics 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +84.0% +66.5% 88% 88% +34.9%
≤30d 29 +35.3% +22.4% 62% 62% +16.1%
≤90d 55 +43.3% +29.6% 60% 58% +19.7%
all 55 +43.3% +29.6% 60% 58% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.6% 58% +19.7%
10% ← realistic here +17.2% 55% +8.2%
15% +5.9% 51% -2.2%
20% -4.5% 49% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$10,651) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +59% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,604 vs −$6,162 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$53,979
Realized+$103,994
Unrealized+$30,469
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses33 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,944
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage64d
Avg bet$6,352
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 34¢ 100¢ $16,165 $47,521 +$31,356 (+194%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3,239 $2,758 −$481 (-15%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $2,733 $2,480 −$253 (-9%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 15¢ 14¢ $750 $725 −$25 (-3%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 18¢ $622 $495 −$127 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17,954 +$22,063 +123%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7,400 +$2,590 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $16,377 +$17,218 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $124 +$98 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15,622 −$15,517 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $483 +$1,219 +252%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,310 +$1,372 +105%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $0 $0 +72%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? Jun 06 $30,125 −$30,125 -100%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10,651 +$8,805 +83%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $263 +$121 +46%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2,679 +$2,021 +75%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $7,531 +$1,429 +19%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $21,328 +$20,698 +97%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 31 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? May 31 $3,512 −$3,512 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 31 $2,290 −$2,290 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 31 $10,565 −$10,565 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 31 $7,376 −$7,376 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 31 $12,542 −$12,542 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $17,983 −$17,983 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Botic van de Zandschulp May 31 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $1,654 +$1,886 +114%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $17,709 +$23,475 +133%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $16,892 +$34,297 +203%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $17,804 +$27,846 +156%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $5,434 +$10,547 +194%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2,216 +$5,146 +232%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $7,910 +$7,350 +93%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $11,214 +$17,901 +160%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11,114 +$9,196 +83%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $965 +$1,005 +104%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $7,190 +$1,872 +26%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $5,192 +$3,062 +59%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $569 +$4 +1%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10,307 +$22,268 +216%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play May 04 $9,997 +$1,847 +18%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics May 04 $11 +$63 +558%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Dalma Galfi Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Madrid Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elena Rybakina Apr 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Emiliana Arango Apr 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Madrid Open: Leolia Jeanjean vs Coco Gauff Apr 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Kenin Apr 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Madrid Open: Madison Keys vs Shuai Zhang Apr 24 $14 +$25 +187%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $106 +$778 +733%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $60 +$32 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $2,380 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $12 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $769 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $7,803 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $5,202 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9,990 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $835 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $14 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $18 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $9 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $18 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $23 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $52 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $14 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $14 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $31 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $31 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $611 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $38 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $7 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $216 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $7 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $84 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $9 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $38 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $76 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $76 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $860 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,978.62 · official $53,978.62 (match) · 521 history records