Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0884…f352 weather 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%141W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$24
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 69 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 127 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 145 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×35.0 per $1 lost it wins $35.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$557
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses141 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage124d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $555 $557 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 28 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $167 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $279 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? Jun 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25? Jun 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $277 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? Jun 25 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $434 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $428 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $405 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $429 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $249 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 10? Jun 10 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $460 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $470 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $401 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $254 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $243 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 4 Jun 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 3? Jun 04 $309 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 04 $244 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $555 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $559 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $557 27h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $279 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $83 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $167 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $277 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $114 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $166 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $399 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $552 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $556 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $424 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $434 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $555 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $551 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $428 9d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $128 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $550 11d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $405 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $134 13d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $429 13d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $549 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $111 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.57 · official $556.57 (match) · 299 history records