Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0886…b3a6 sports 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,993 (+20%) realized +$4,293 · open −$300
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%26W / 68L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$979
7 days+$979
14 days+$979
30 days−$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$3,162
sports 33% +$1,050
other 19% −$520
economics 2% +$86
politics 1% −$200
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +25.5% +13.5% 44% 44% +14.3%
≤30d 38 -10.1% -18.7% 29% 29% -12.9%
≤90d 78 -20.9% -28.4% 28% 28% +3.8%
all 94 -6.1% -15.0% 28% 27% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 27% +6.9%
10% -23.2% 27% -3.3%
15% -30.6% 26% -12.7%
20% -37.4% 24% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$447 vs −$115 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized+$4,293
Unrealized−$300
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses26 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions7
Markets (closed)94 / 101
History coverage107d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 22¢ $100 $269 +$169 (+169%)
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $161 $110 −$52 (-32%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $100 $27 −$73 (-73%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Over 11¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $203 +$251 +123%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $103 +$563 +549%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $144 +$171 +118%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$160 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $688 +$751 +109%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$183 +180%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $425 +$365 +86%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 16 $1,163 −$736 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? May 31 $233 −$217 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? May 31 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $107 −$100 -94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $105 +$38 +36%
Will BNB reach $700 in May? May 30 $106 +$425 +402%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $105 −$50 -48%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $105 −$32 -31%
Will BNB reach $800 in May? May 21 $30 −$28 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 24? May 21 $1 −$1 -66%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $107 +$269 +252%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 3.5 May 21 $255 +$386 +152%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 5.5 May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 4.5 May 21 $102 −$93 -90%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5 May 21 $350 −$344 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 24? May 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 24? May 21 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 21 $673 −$658 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 21 $104 −$100 -96%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 4.5 May 21 $102 −$100 -98%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 5.5 May 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 18 $98 −$96 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $106 −$87 -82%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $421 +$1,084 +257%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 08 $107 −$100 -94%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 May 08 $279 +$293 +105%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5) May 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $95 −$93 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 06 $207 −$204 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $454 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $666 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $102 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $148 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $103 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $62 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $315 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $144 16h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes $21 16h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes $21 16h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes $21 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $204 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $103 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $312 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $152 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $71 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $202 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,439 19h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $285 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $688 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $102 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $791 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $425 24h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $427 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 49¢ $233 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY Yes $75 17d
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes $107 17d
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $175 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.45 · official $466.45 (match) · 162 history records