Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0886…dd80 world 33 markets active 4h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+11%) realized +$7 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$8
world 32% +$12
culture 5% $0
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.2% -3.0% 40% 20% -12.0%
≤30d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 6% -15.0%
≤90d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 6% -15.0%
all 17 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 6% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 6% -15.0%
10% -17.5% 6% -23.1%
15% -25.4% 6% -30.6%
20% -32.8% 6% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)17 / 33
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+75%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 12¢ 31¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+155%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 57¢ 28¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 35¢ 56¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? No 90¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Yes 69¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 82¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 61¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $14 +$1 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +257%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $3 −$2 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $9 −$4 -43%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 82¢ $1 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 37h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $9 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.13 · official $61.15 (match) · 157 history records