Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
08 0x0887…28f3 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$205 (-8%) realized −$204 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%35W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days−$290
14 days−$242
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -10.5% -19.0% 48% 46% -21.0%
≤30d 71 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 48% -18.9%
≤90d 71 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 48% -18.9%
all 71 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 48% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 48% -18.9%
10% -24.8% 48% -26.6%
15% -32.0% 48% -33.7%
20% -38.7% 45% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$33 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions5
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage7d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 44¢ 44¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $20 −$17 -82%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $11 +$9 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $30 +$23 +76%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $20 +$19 +93%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $51 +$46 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $29 +$21 +73%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 +$19 +60%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $27 +$23 +87%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $28 +$19 +68%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $26 +$24 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $24 +$27 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $48 +$54 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $26 +$25 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $14 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $30 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $30 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $51 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 3h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 37¢ $15 4h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $20 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 15¢ $11 5h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 21¢ $20 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 34¢ $20 5h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $51 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $11 6h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $30 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 10¢ $4 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $30 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 20h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $20 21h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $20 21h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $30 22h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $11 24h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 45¢ $20 24h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $20 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $20 24h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $20 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 24h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 60¢ $20 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $20 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $31 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 44¢ $20 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.04 · official $153.04 (match) · 159 history records