Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0887…6d60 sports 28 markets active 3d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-22%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$20
other 24% −$9
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -35.6% -41.7% 22% 17% -30.7%
≤30d 26 -38.2% -44.1% 19% 15% -34.0%
≤90d 28 -35.5% -41.7% 21% 14% -32.2%
all 28 -35.5% -41.7% 21% 14% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 14% -32.2%
10% -47.3% 7% -38.7%
15% -52.4% 4% -44.6%
20% -57.0% 4% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage117d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 −$4 -44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $12 −$4 -33%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -83%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 13 $3 −$2 -55%
Pakistan Super League: Islamabad United vs Quetta Gladiators Jun 13 $6 −$2 -25%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Jun 13 $4 −$3 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $5 −$2 -34%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -16%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $5 −$3 -61%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $2 −$1 -61%
Will England win? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -53%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 02 $2 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $8 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 51¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 90¢ $10 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 33¢ $3 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 32¢ $11 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 22¢ $8 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 32¢ $8 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 46¢ $12 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc SELL Yes 94¢ $8 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 33¢ $4 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 10¢ $3 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 24¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Completed matc BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $4 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 25¢ $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Elena Rybakina 75¢ $4 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 63¢ $3 4d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates BUY Hong Kong, China $1 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records