Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x088d…773d other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$446 (+2%) realized +$446 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate70%78W / 33L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$10
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$471
politics 17% $0
crypto 6% −$80
world 1% +$9
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.3% -6.6% 90% 10% -8.8%
≤30d 17 +5.2% -4.9% 88% 24% -7.4%
≤90d 37 +4.5% -5.4% 92% 16% -6.0%
all 111 -3.2% -12.4% 70% 25% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 25% -8.1%
10% -20.8% 5% -16.9%
15% -28.5% 2% -24.9%
20% -35.5% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$30 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$446
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses78 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage242d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $339 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $107 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 18 $170 +$2 +1%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 18 $180 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$2 +17%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,271 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $80 +$7 +9%
YOM FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +9%
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? May 28 $600 +$67 +11%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $590 +$24 +4%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $545 +$59 +11%
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 21 $111 +$5 +4%
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 05 $409 +$4 +1%
MegaETH FDV above $1.6B one day after launch? May 01 $492 +$121 +25%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 30 $435 +$94 +22%
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $500 +$6 +1%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 25 $407 +$13 +3%
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale? Apr 25 $450 +$17 +4%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 22 $427 +$29 +7%
Octra FDV above $30M one day after launch? Apr 22 $40 −$8 -19%
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 17 $402 +$1 +0%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $413 +$33 +8%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale? Apr 13 $300 +$3 +1%
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 10 $507 +$7 +1%
P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch? Apr 02 $400 +$8 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $411 +$23 +6%
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $422 +$4 +1%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 31 $400 +$22 +5%
Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 26 $402 +$17 +4%
Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 26 $300 +$1 +0%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $414 +$11 +3%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 23 $10 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $10 −$3 -28%
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 20 $218 −$2 -1%
Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch? Mar 19 $98 +$11 +11%
Unitas Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 14 $1 $0 -50%
Nebula3 FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 12 $207 $0 +0%
Yellow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 09 $5 +$1 +17%
Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 09 $10 $0 +2%
Yellow FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 09 $10 $0 +5%
Block Street FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 06 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 04 $208 +$36 +17%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 01 $165 +$26 +16%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 27 $150 +$15 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $339 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 837 history records