Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
08 0x0893…fc30 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$7
politics 19% −$5
sports 10% +$18
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 +1.6% -8.1% 12% 8% -9.5%
all 103 +1.5% -8.1% 12% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 8% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage94d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $164 $164 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $310 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 14 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $284 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $267 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $832 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $446 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $287 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $283 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 11 $267 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $284 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $283 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 09 $269 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$8 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $42 4h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 13h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 17h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 22h
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $42 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $164 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 6d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 12d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $48 22d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 23d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $84 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 28d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $39 28d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $51 30d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $51 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $102 31d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $253 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.92 · official $276.92 (match) · 288 history records