Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
08 0x0894…d819 other 262 markets active 2h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,481 (+3%) realized +$4,891 · open +$590
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate75%188W / 62L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$728per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$6,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,502
7 days+$1,607
14 days+$3,159
30 days+$2,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$3,174
crypto 35% +$482
politics 9% +$912
world 8% +$1,057
sports 3% −$663
economics 2% +$6
culture 0% +$22
finance 0% −$50
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.2% +0.6% 80% 60% +11.9%
≤30d 55 +2.4% -7.4% 82% 33% -1.1%
≤90d 103 +16.8% +5.7% 70% 23% -5.2%
all 250 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 23% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 23% -7.3%
10% -11.6% 14% -16.2%
15% -20.1% 7% -24.3%
20% -27.9% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$740) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$106 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$6,482
Realized+$4,891
Unrealized+$590
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses188 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions12
Markets (closed)250 / 262
History coverage365d
Avg bet$728
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? No 85¢ 83¢ $2,125 $2,075 −$50 (-2%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 68¢ $1,379 $1,539 +$161 (+12%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 14¢ 38¢ $476 $1,316 +$840 (+176%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 46¢ 50¢ $810 $866 +$56 (+7%)
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 41¢ 40¢ $328 $324 −$4 (-1%)
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 42¢ $183 $124 −$58 (-32%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $140 $99 −$41 (-29%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 39¢ 40¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 8¢ $105 $26 −$79 (-75%)
Will Aster reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 20¢ $55 $20 −$36 (-65%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $98 $12 −$86 (-88%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $113 $0 −$113 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $3,804 +$352 +9%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $270 +$230 +85%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $810 +$690 +85%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $574 +$124 +22%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $492 +$106 +22%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $125 +$12 +10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 19 $182 −$26 -14%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $243 +$33 +14%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $370 +$130 +35%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $555 +$125 +22%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $845 +$68 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1,036 +$84 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $228 +$610 +268%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,287 +$890 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $250 −$42 -17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +35%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$37 +18%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 09 $246 −$168 -68%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $156 +$17 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $390 +$30 +8%
Will Trump say "Corn" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Beef" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $144 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $168 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "MIT" or "Massachusetts Institute of Technology" during Jun 06 $205 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Child" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $2,340 −$1,130 -48%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $77 +$23 +30%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 05 $155 +$29 +19%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 04 $79 +$4 +5%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $249 +$3 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $385 +$115 +30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $496 +$4 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $418 +$116 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $810 +$190 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $553 −$75 -14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 30 $735 +$58 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $356 +$34 +10%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meetin May 28 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Cabinet meeting? May 28 $156 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $968 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $54 1h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 41¢ $342 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $107 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $447 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $354 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $92 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $5 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $9 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 35h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $690 41h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 100¢ $449 41h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 41h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 41h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 100¢ $150 41h
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $9 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $361 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 3d
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $3 3d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 82¢ $68 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $78 3d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 82¢ $23 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $32 3d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 3d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 82¢ $13 3d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 82¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,481.84 · official $6,481.84 (match) · 1951 history records