Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
08 0x0897…5118 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$594 (+118%) realized +$304 · open +$290
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +179% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +142% what you keep after slip
Net edge+142%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$43
sports 20% −$19
world 20% +$291
crypto 4% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+152.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +178.8% +152.3% 70% 70% +59.9%
≤30d 10 +178.8% +152.3% 70% 70% +59.9%
≤90d 10 +178.8% +152.3% 70% 70% +59.9%
all 10 +178.8% +152.3% 70% 70% +59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +152.3% 70% +59.9%
10% +128.1% 70% +44.6%
15% +106.1% 70% +30.6%
20% +85.9% 70% +17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +179% · $-wt +77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$34 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$482
Realized+$304
Unrealized+$290
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 14¢ 93¢ $50 $341 +$291 (+582%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 +$50 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 +$16 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$23 +218%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$153 +1438%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $20 +$15 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $58 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $66 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $11 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $20 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 30¢ $10 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $158 25h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 56¢ $20 33h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $10 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 34h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.13 · official $482.13 (match) · 26 history records