Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0898…e395 politics 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+0%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$18
politics 35% −$15
sports 5% +$91
crypto 2% $0
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -1.5% -10.8% 2% 1% -9.6%
all 122 +1.8% -7.9% 8% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 7% -9.4%
10% -16.7% 7% -18.0%
15% -24.7% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×17.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage119d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $317 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $290 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $266 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $301 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $237 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $724 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $230 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $305 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 13 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $564 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $290 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $316 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $562 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $313 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $241 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $260 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $272 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $275 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $537 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $31 12d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 16d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 20d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 20d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.88 · official $96.88 (match) · 353 history records