Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x0898…53b3
sports · 40 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$15 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$107
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)24 / 40
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 16 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+75%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Yes 64¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+55%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will David Raya record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 37¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 13¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 36¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 21¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 31¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Shevchenko vs. Sachko: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +101%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$4 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +119%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$14
sports 36% +$4
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $2 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 12¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 14¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 36¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 28h
Shevchenko vs. Sachko: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 43h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes $3 44h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No $2 44h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 44h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $2 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 36¢ $2 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 36¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 42% -21.4%
≤30d 24 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 42% -21.4%
≤90d 24 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 42% -21.4%
all 24 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 42% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 42% -21.4%
10% -28.4% 42% -28.9%
15% -35.3% 42% -35.8%
20% -41.6% 42% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.92 · official $106.92 (match) · 59 history records