Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:56:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0898…0809 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+4%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 40% -10.6%
≤30d 35 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 40% -10.6%
≤90d 35 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 40% -10.6%
all 35 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 40% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 40% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 34% -19.1%
15% -32.5% 26% -26.9%
20% -39.1% 23% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $55 +$44 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$15 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$37 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records