Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0899…df5f politics 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$20
other 26% −$5
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 93 -16.4% -24.4% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -31.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -38.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -44.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage663d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 93 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $55 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division? Feb 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Nov 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Everton be relegated? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Paul George lead the NBA in Scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nick Bosa win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Hurts be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Fortnight' win Record of the Year? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will the match between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig end in a draw? Dec 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Dillon Brooks win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Hunter Biden fined over 100k in gun case? Nov 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will RB Leipzig win the Bundesliga? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will AOC win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Nov 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $53 12h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 20d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 35d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 35d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 39d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 39d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $53 42d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $54 42d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 67d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 67d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 89d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 90d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 93d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 94d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $55 98d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $55 99d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 100d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 101d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $55 102d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $55 103d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 108d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 109d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? SELL No 99¢ $55 113d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $55 115d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 118d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records