Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x089d…f9dd other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1
world 27% +$2
politics 11% $0
sports 6% −$26
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% +$2
tech 3% $0
weather 1% +$13
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 17 +0.1% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.4%
all 50 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -10.0%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage484d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 −$3 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $54 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $77 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $70 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $70 −$1 -1%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $249 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $236 +$1 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 10 $4 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2100 and $2300 on May 16? May 15 $35 +$1 +4%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 May 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will another candidate win? May 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 09 $11 $0 -2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $36 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 08 $19 $0 -1%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 08 $2 $0 +10%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 08 $17 $0 -0%
Coastal Carolina vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FCSB win on 2025-03-06? Mar 04 $25 $0 -1%
Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win on 2025-03-06? Mar 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February Mar 04 $12 +$13 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 20h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $35 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $25 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $8 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 9d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most SELL No 84¢ $77 51d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY No 83¢ $77 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.50 · official $38.50 (match) · 166 history records