Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08a1…10dc sports 483 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,195 (+3%) realized +$1,265 · open −$70
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%248W / 230L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$454est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$314
14 days+$716
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,022
other 1% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +49.2% +35.0% 80% 80% +39.0%
≤30d 158 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 50% -10.7%
≤90d 412 -0.6% -10.1% 52% 52% -8.5%
all 478 +1.9% -7.8% 52% 52% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 52% -7.3%
10% -16.7% 52% -16.2%
15% -24.7% 51% -24.3%
20% -32.1% 48% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$76 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized+$1,265
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses248 / 230
Est. fees paid−$454
Open positions5
Markets (closed)478 / 483
History coverage101d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 51¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+3%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 50¢ 26¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $115 +$85 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $99 +$101 +101%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $170 +$130 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $99 −$98 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $101 +$97 +96%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $81 +$69 +86%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 16 $158 +$142 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $78 +$62 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $75 −$74 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $152 +$131 +86%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$105 +206%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $81 +$48 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $59 +$41 +70%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $55 +$48 +86%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $47 +$63 +134%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $105 +$65 +62%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $129 +$131 +101%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 13 $215 −$212 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $109 −$107 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $53 +$57 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $41 +$39 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $53 −$52 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $54 −$53 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $40 +$30 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $187 +$111 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $55 +$45 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $231 +$156 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $56 −$55 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $52 −$51 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $164 +$136 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $190 +$164 +86%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $82 +$79 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $67 +$63 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $95 −$94 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $87 −$87 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $54 +$46 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $45 +$33 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $53 +$57 +109%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $51 +$49 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $54 +$56 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $101 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $38 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $2 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $1 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $2 4h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $58 4h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $115 23h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $99 24h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ $99 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $170 25h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 25h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 50¢ $101 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $101 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $64 9d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY PortlandFire 53¢ $107 9d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 52¢ $158 9d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $81 9d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $75 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $78 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $51 10d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 62¢ $81 10d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 32¢ $51 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $152 10d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $55 11d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $48 11d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $1 11d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $3 11d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $1 11d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $2 11d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.86 · official $351.86 (match) · 987 history records