Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08a2…e76a crypto 444 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-4%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate68%302W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$51
weather 4% −$8
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +15.3% +4.3% 53% 47% -11.0%
≤30d 409 +2.3% -7.4% 67% 56% -16.2%
≤90d 443 +3.4% -6.5% 68% 57% -15.4%
all 443 +3.4% -6.5% 68% 57% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 57% -15.4%
10% -15.4% 54% -23.5%
15% -23.6% 35% -30.9%
20% -31.1% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses302 / 141
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)443 / 444
History coverage52d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 61¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$3 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$2 -43%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$1 -39%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$2 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$2 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -85%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$1 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$2 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? SELL No 78¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? SELL No 81¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? BUY No 88¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $1.19 (match) · 1073 history records