Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
08 0x08a4…5c3f sports 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 234d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,164 (+7%) realized +$28,432 · open −$1,268
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%112W / 189L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,557per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$174est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 234d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$3,042
other 14% −$36,163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 70 -97.4% -97.6% 1% 1% -97.6%
≤90d 75 -97.6% -97.8% 1% 1% -97.7%
all 301 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 37% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 37% -32.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 37% -39.0%
15% -38.1% 37% -44.9%
20% -44.1% 36% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$2,061) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,506 vs −$1,508 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$28,432
Unrealized−$1,268
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses112 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions1
Markets (closed)301 / 240
History coverage234d ⚠
Avg bet$1,557
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Haiti 26¢ $1,300 $32 −$1,268 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 186 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Oilers vs. Islanders Jun 20 $2,696 −$2,696 -100%
Panthers vs. Red Wings Jun 20 $832 −$832 -100%
Canucks vs. Stars Jun 20 $2,157 −$2,157 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-09-08? Jun 20 $764 −$764 -100%
Kings vs. Blues Jun 20 $2,650 −$2,650 -100%
Senators vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,048 −$1,048 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-09-08? Jun 20 $1,674 −$1,674 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21? Jun 20 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Jets vs. Islanders Jun 20 $703 −$703 -100%
Islanders vs. Senators Jun 20 $2,083 −$2,083 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 20 $989 −$989 -100%
Ducks vs. Lightning Jun 20 $1,712 −$1,712 -100%
Penguins vs. Sharks Jun 20 $1,163 −$1,163 -100%
Avalanche vs. Utah Jun 20 $1,898 −$1,898 -100%
Flames vs. Maple Leafs Jun 20 $2,421 −$2,421 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Panthers Jun 20 $840 −$840 -100%
Devils vs. Maple Leafs Jun 20 $3,120 −$3,120 -100%
Kraken vs. Maple Leafs Jun 20 $2,930 −$2,930 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-10-10? Jun 20 $980 −$980 -100%
Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,638 −$1,638 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21? Jun 20 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
UEFA Women’s Euro: Sweden vs. England (To Advance) Jun 20 $787 −$787 -100%
Will Malmö FF win on 2025-10-23? Jun 20 $140 −$140 -100%
Kings vs. Sharks Jun 20 $1,990 −$1,990 -100%
Ducks vs. Bruins Jun 20 $130 −$130 -100%
Red Wings vs. Blues Jun 20 $1,733 −$1,733 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21? Jun 20 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? Jun 20 $495 −$495 -100%
Kraken vs. Senators Jun 20 $1,910 −$1,910 -100%
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2025-10-23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins Jun 20 $3,645 −$3,645 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-22? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Leeds United vs. West Ham end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Stars Jun 20 $2,826 −$2,826 -100%
Bruins vs. Avalanche Jun 20 $497 −$497 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-10-23? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Oilers vs. Devils Jun 20 $1,782 −$1,782 -100%
Senators vs. Sabres Jun 20 $2,066 −$2,066 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Blues Jun 20 $1,043 −$1,043 -100%
Will BSC Young Boys vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad end in a draw? Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Stars Jun 20 $2,835 −$2,835 -100%
Spread: Lightning (-1.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Blues: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $776 −$776 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Jun 20 $1,782 −$1,782 -100%
Senators vs. Capitals Jun 20 $2,408 −$2,408 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Flames Jun 20 $641 −$641 -100%
Lightning vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $851 −$851 -100%
Rangers vs. Canadiens Jun 20 $1,335 −$1,335 -100%
Blues vs. Canucks Jun 20 $707 −$707 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 26¢ $1,329 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $1 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $1,110 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $11 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $6 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $7 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $117 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $4 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $84 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $23 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $59 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $3 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $4 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $6 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $1 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $360 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $29 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,001 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $675 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $645 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 49¢ $2,486 16d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 41¢ $62 18d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 41¢ $2 18d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 41¢ $83 18d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 41¢ $15 18d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 41¢ $2 18d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 41¢ $7 18d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 41¢ $7 18d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 41¢ $132 18d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 41¢ $14 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.50 · official $30.00 · 3500 history records