Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
08 0x08aa…3c9d other 6 markets active 1d ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+14%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -12.0% -20.4% 0% 0% -20.4%
≤30d 1 -12.0% -20.4% 0% 0% -20.4%
≤90d 1 -12.0% -20.4% 0% 0% -20.4%
all 1 -12.0% -20.4% 0% 0% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 0% -20.4%
10% -28.0% 0% -28.0%
15% -35.0% 0% -35.0%
20% -41.4% 0% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+84%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 52¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 12d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.80 · official $6.80 (match) · 9 history records