Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x08ab…cbc4
other · 194 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$481 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$336 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$205
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 107
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions68
Markets (closed)126 / 194
History coverage34d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 68 History 126 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$58
14 days−$304
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $76 $68 −$9 (-12%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 54¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 45¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 28¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-71%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Huddle FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 98¢ 67¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 13 $33 −$6 -18%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Huddle FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 12 $16 −$11 -73%
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Jun 12 $105 −$2 -2%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 12 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian Jun 12 $11 −$9 -80%
Ostium FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -81%
US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -90%
MagicBlock FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -71%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Chris Swanson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary e Jun 12 $5 −$4 -81%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$5 +67%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Will Chainlink reach $18 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $68 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $22 −$8 -38%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +13%
Perena FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -46%
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $25 −$1 -4%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $5 $0 -6%
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $121 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $91 −$1 -1%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31 Jun 05 $4 $0 -2%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2 $0 -4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $86 −$3 -3%
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 05 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3 $0 -1%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $67 −$3 -4%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $248 −$9 -4%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $237 −$5 -2%
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Jun 05 $95 −$5 -6%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $157 −$18 -12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 03 $0 $0 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $127 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $277 −$3 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $546 −$6 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $575 −$7 -1%
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? Jun 03 $9 $0 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 03 $257 −$14 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 69% −$222
crypto 9% −$16
world 9% −$21
finance 6% −$23
sports 3% −$16
politics 2% −$71
weather 1% −$2
economics 1% −$3
tech 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 84¢ $9 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $9 1h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 83¢ $12 2h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 85¢ $10 2h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $10 2h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presid SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 78¢ $11 4h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 84¢ $6 4h
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $7 4h
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 5h
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 5h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presid BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 70¢ $2 5h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $7 5h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 84¢ $7 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 71¢ $5 5h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 84¢ $6 5h
Huddle FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 5h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $7 5h
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $9 5h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 85¢ $7 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 57¢ $3 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 81¢ $8 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -28.9% -35.7% 20% 16% -21.2%
≤30d 122 -19.7% -27.3% 16% 11% -13.2%
≤90d 126 -22.2% -29.6% 15% 10% -13.3%
all 126 -22.2% -29.6% 15% 10% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.6% 10% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.4% 6% -21.6%
15% -42.5% 5% -29.2%
20% -48.1% 5% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.49 · official $203.20 · 1747 history records