Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08af…bb75 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$10,258 (+97%) realized +$10,257 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 60L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$499
14 days+$486
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$10,468
crypto 26% −$1,148
other 12% −$123
sports 10% +$832
finance 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.1% -30.4% 32% 32% +13.4%
≤30d 20 -22.6% -29.9% 30% 30% +11.7%
≤90d 66 +28.0% +15.8% 26% 26% +17.6%
all 77 +9.7% -0.8% 22% 22% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 22% +16.5%
10% -10.2% 21% +5.4%
15% -18.9% 18% -4.8%
20% -26.9% 16% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +108% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +106% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +43% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$737 vs −$43 · ×17.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.95 per $1 lost it wins $4.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$10,257
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage118d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 27¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $434 +$235 +54%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $212 −$116 -55%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $214 −$200 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $107 −$4 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $567 +$221 +39%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 +$75 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$5 -5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 +$200 +189%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 +$49 +46%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 +$92 +174%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $107 −$13 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,173 +$127 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $3,151 +$1,028 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 17 $80 −$63 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 17 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12PM ET Apr 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 17 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Apr 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? Apr 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $85 +$28 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9AM ET Apr 17 $90 +$11 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $10 +$9 +98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $29 +$18 +64%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 17 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $200 −$114 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $30 −$28 -93%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $27 −$7 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $20 −$15 -77%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $24 −$19 -79%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $25 −$15 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 14 $15 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 14 $55 −$49 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 15? Apr 14 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 14 $21 −$17 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $670 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $202 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $212 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $106 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 31¢ $79 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $106 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $212 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $103 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $107 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $788 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $147 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.78 · official $3.22 (match) · 205 history records