Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08b1…cc42 crypto 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-8%) realized −$158 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%72W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$117
14 days−$117
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$226
sports 20% +$69
other 4% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 28% -18.8%
≤30d 234 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 29% -20.0%
≤90d 234 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 29% -20.0%
all 234 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 29% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 29% -20.0%
10% -24.6% 26% -27.7%
15% -31.9% 24% -34.7%
20% -38.6% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses72 / 162
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)234 / 250
History coverage28d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 5¢ 12¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+131%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 11¢ 21¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+91%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 16¢ 6¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$4 -39%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$28 +543%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$17 +339%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$22 +208%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$27 +525%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +317%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 40m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $12 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 51m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 55m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.37 · official $51.94 · 468 history records