Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
08 0x08b1…99e1 crypto 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+16%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +16.5% +5.4% 72% 67% +10.2%
≤30d 18 +16.5% +5.4% 72% 67% +10.2%
≤90d 18 +16.5% +5.4% 72% 67% +10.2%
all 18 +16.5% +5.4% 72% 67% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.4% 67% +10.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.7% 44% -0.4%
15% -13.9% 39% -10.0%
20% -22.4% 33% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$26 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records