Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
08 0x08b3…33fe other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$293 (+16%) realized +$314 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$51
14 days+$406
30 days+$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$25
world 16% +$118
sports 11% +$389
tech 4% +$42
politics 4% +$83
crypto 2% −$8
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+82.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -49.3% -54.1% 33% 33% -3.6%
≤30d 32 +92.7% +74.3% 38% 31% +8.8%
≤90d 56 +101.2% +82.0% 38% 30% +14.2%
all 56 +101.2% +82.0% 38% 30% +14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +82.0% 30% +14.2%
10% +64.6% 25% +3.3%
15% +48.7% 21% -6.7%
20% +34.1% 20% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +87% → late +115% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$7 · ×6.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.66 per $1 lost it wins $3.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$314
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)56 / 83
History coverage147d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Yes $9 $4 −$5 (-60%)
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Jun 27 $31 +$5 +18%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $268 +$64 +24%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $110 +$20 +19%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $350 −$12 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 19 $8 +$3 +42%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $7 +$10 +131%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp Jun 16 $3 +$48 +1494%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$9 -53%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $6 +$245 +3966%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $8 +$53 +644%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Jun 04 $21 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24 −$3 -13%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will voter turnout be between 90% and 95% in the 2026 Maltese general May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 31 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $28 −$19 -67%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $12 −$7 -57%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? May 28 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by June 30? May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by June 30? May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? May 26 $14 −$3 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? May 23 $13 −$12 -88%
Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro May 23 $8 −$5 -56%
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? May 23 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 22 $5 +$45 +865%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 22 $5 +$167 +3219%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 21 $16 +$10 +67%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $16 +$19 +117%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 21 $16 −$3 -22%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $19 +$76 +410%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 20 $21 +$3 +15%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $26 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs paiN Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group St May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S May 18 $74 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 35¢ $33 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $198 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $127 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 27h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $5 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $185 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $338 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $247 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $6 6d
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $5 6d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes $5 6d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $5 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes $12 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 BUY $2 8d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina w BUY $2 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY $2 8d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY $2 8d
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY $2 8d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY $3 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY $3 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY $3 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.81 · official $16.81 (match) · 194 history records