Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
08 0x08b5…5a6e sports 389 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$403 (+2%) realized +$406 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%193W / 195L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$228
other 18% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.2% -6.7% 80% 40% -6.7%
≤30d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 29% -9.1%
≤90d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 29% -9.1%
all 388 -1.0% -10.5% 50% 46% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 46% -7.6%
10% -19.0% 42% -16.5%
15% -26.9% 37% -24.5%
20% -34.0% 34% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$38 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized+$406
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses193 / 195
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)388 / 389
History coverage216d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$56 +56%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 +$32 +31%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $100 −$80 -80%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $373 −$11 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 05 $51 +$13 +25%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 05 $51 +$15 +30%
Will Cameroon win on 2026-01-04? Jan 05 $10 +$16 +163%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $20 +$1 +3%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $10 +$14 +138%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $30 +$15 +49%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $30 +$15 +52%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $30 +$15 +49%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $51 +$47 +92%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-02? Jan 03 $51 +$8 +16%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-01-02? Jan 03 $51 +$13 +25%
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-01-02? Jan 03 $51 +$14 +27%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-01-02? Jan 03 $51 +$30 +59%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-31? Jan 01 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Mozambique win on 2025-12-31? Jan 01 $51 +$8 +15%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2025-12-31? Dec 31 $51 +$8 +15%
Will Sudan win on 2025-12-31? Dec 31 $51 +$8 +16%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $17 +$11 +64%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $51 +$16 +32%
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $10 +$11 +113%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-29? Dec 30 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-29? Dec 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-29? Dec 30 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $20 +$14 +70%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-28? Dec 29 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $12 +$11 +89%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $50 +$29 +59%
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 8h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 SELL Over 19¢ $20 8h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 21h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 32h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $108 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $127 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $117 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $121 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $6 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.69 · official $489.70 (match) · 1326 history records