Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08b8…e7da sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,644 (+17%) realized +$5,462 · open −$1,818
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$486per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$325est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$1,974
14 days+$1,998
30 days+$3,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,769
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 46% +6.4%
≤30d 43 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 47% +6.7%
≤90d 43 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 47% +6.7%
all 43 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 47% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 47% +6.7%
10% -19.0% 47% -3.5%
15% -26.8% 42% -12.8%
20% -34.0% 40% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$483 vs −$335 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$5,462
Unrealized−$1,818
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$325
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage15d
Avg bet$486
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner PlayTime 49¢ 0¢ $1,274 $1 −$1,273 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner PlayTime 34¢ 0¢ $546 $1 −$546 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $505 +$295 +59%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $468 −$468 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,260 +$740 +59%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $427 −$427 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $354 −$353 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $353 −$353 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,953 +$1,147 +59%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $485 −$485 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $357 +$192 +54%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $260 −$260 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $533 +$269 +50%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $327 +$98 +30%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $457 +$713 +156%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $248 +$552 +223%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $420 +$780 +186%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $293 −$292 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $400 +$370 +92%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $293 +$196 +67%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $212 +$4 +2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $502 +$247 +49%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $320 −$252 -79%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $350 +$200 +57%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $104 +$203 +195%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $476 −$475 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $272 −$269 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $438 −$432 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $448 +$23 +5%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $690 +$650 +94%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $422 −$416 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $871 +$1,089 +125%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $863 +$284 +33%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $824 +$1,046 +127%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $449 −$441 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $819 −$818 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $415 +$305 +73%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $744 +$1,214 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 35¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 35¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 35¢ $52 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 35¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 35¢ $265 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 33¢ $119 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 33¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 33¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 30¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 30¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $48 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $585 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $429 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $174 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $42 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $122 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $2 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $2 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $2 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $25 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $25 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $25 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $25 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $13 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $25 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $86 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $98 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $2 9h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 63¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.10 · official $2.10 (match) · 259 history records