Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08ba…dd03 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (378 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day378.0pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$2
politics 35% $0
world 8% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover378.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
17.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day378.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $1,660 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $2,474 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $77 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $25 1m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 98¢ $30 12m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $1 16m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $1 16m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $30 21m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $2 31m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $1 31m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $19 37m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $2 38m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 38m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $10 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $31 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 99¢ $31 39m
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $31 39m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $30 52m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $30 52m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 54m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 55m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 55m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $71 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.83 · official $88.83 (match) · 378 history records