Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

08 0x08bd…24fe other 24 markets active 14h ago coverage 13d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$17 (+11%) realized +$18 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown35%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$3

7 days−$4

14 days+$16

30 days+$16

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-0.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+11.3%	+0.7%	38%	31%	-16.8%
≤30d	22	+9.9%	-0.6%	45%	41%	+0.2%
≤90d	22	+9.9%	-0.6%	45%	41%	+0.2%
all	22	+9.9%	-0.6%	45%	41%	+0.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.6%	41%	+0.2%
10%	-10.1%	32%	-9.4%
15%	-18.8%	23%	-18.2%
20%	-26.7%	18%	-26.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +24% → late -4% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$7

Realized+$18

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage13d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown35%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	71¢	68¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals	Yes	17¢	14¢	$3	$2	−$0 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	+$3	+194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 15	$2	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 15	$8	−$3	-31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 15	$4	$0	-8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$11	+$5	+44%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$8	−$4	-50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 10	$1	+$3	+287%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 09	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 09	$25	+$4	+17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08?	Jun 08	$20	+$5	+23%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw?	Jun 08	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 07	$2	+$5	+246%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 07	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 07	$24	+$7	+30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	Jun 06	$15	+$9	+62%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03?	Jun 02	$5	−$5	-99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees	Jun 02	$4	$0	-7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$5	14h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	17¢	$3	14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	43¢	$5	16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	85¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	SELL Down	47¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	SELL Up	46¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Up	6¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$4	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	SELL Down	67¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$1	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	SELL Up	61¢	$1	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.25 · official $7.25 (match) · 65 history records