Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x08be…bea8
crypto · 1074 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$48 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$892 · open −$131
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,544
Realized−$892
Unrealized−$131
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses676 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$495
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1054 / 1074
History coverage38d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day71.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 18 History 1054 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$615
7 days+$478
14 days−$750
30 days−$1,926
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 84¢ 84¢ $401 $399 −$2 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 52¢ $241 $220 −$21 (-9%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 66¢ 46¢ $300 $212 −$88 (-29%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $105 $141 +$36 (+35%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $42 $52 +$10 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 58¢ 26¢ $100 $45 −$55 (-55%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 45¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 77¢ 54¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Under 63¢ 64¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 67¢ 79¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+61%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 52¢ 52¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General? Yes 77¢ 42¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-45%)
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $173 $0 −$173 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Spurs 70¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $239 −$186 -78%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $202 −$57 -28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $92 +$36 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 13 $101 −$92 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$8 +13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $36 −$22 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $175 −$173 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$26 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $139 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $353 −$40 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $56 +$33 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 −$19 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% −$32
crypto 35% −$1,919
other 15% +$694
world 0% +$146
tech 0% +$143
politics 0% +$20
finance 0% −$65
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 15m
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 70¢ $11 56m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $30 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $40 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $30 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $10 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 83¢ $17 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 83¢ $70 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 83¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 84¢ $403 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 68¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $20 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 SELL Over 49¢ $145 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $20 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 BUY Over 66¢ $202 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 269 +0.6% -8.9% 63% 62% -6.9%
≤30d 730 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 59% -11.7%
≤90d 1054 -3.0% -12.3% 64% 58% -10.3%
all 1054 -3.0% -12.3% 64% 58% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 58% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 46% -18.9%
15% -28.3% 33% -26.7%
20% -35.4% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,543.68 · official $1,558.69 (match) · 3500 history records