Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08be…4a1d world 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+1%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$7
sports 33% −$16
world 28% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 14 -10.1% -18.6% 43% 14% -8.4%
all 14 -10.1% -18.6% 43% 14% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 14% -8.4%
10% -26.4% 14% -17.1%
15% -33.5% 7% -25.1%
20% -40.1% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage83d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 27 $404 $0 +0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 27 $398 +$8 +2%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? Jun 21 $271 $0 +0%
Spread: Greece (-2.5) Jun 09 $493 +$17 +4%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $474 $0 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 04 $467 +$28 +6%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 02 $349 −$2 -0%
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) May 01 $48 −$48 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 01 $72 $0 +0%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $100 +$42 +42%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, Apr 19 $23 +$8 +33%
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5) Apr 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Paris FC (-2.5) Apr 05 $1 $0 -26%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 05 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $404 52m
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $404 1h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL No 98¢ $407 3h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $398 5h
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $271 6d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $271 6d
Spread: Greece (-2.5) BUY Sweden 96¢ $493 23d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $474 23d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $474 23d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Belgium 94¢ $467 24d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $347 25d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $349 25d
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) BUY Mantova 1911 $24 57d
Spread: Mantova 1911 (-1.5) BUY Mantova 1911 $24 57d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $36 57d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $36 57d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $36 57d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $36 57d
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $72 59d
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $70 59d
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 59d
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 59d
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 59d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $15 69d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $15 69d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY Yes $12 70d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY Yes $11 70d
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5) BUY Athletic Club $6 83d
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5) BUY Athletic Club $6 83d
Spread: Paris FC (-2.5) SELL Paris FC $1 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records