Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08bf…df57 crypto 771 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$252 (+1%) realized +$253 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate78%597W / 173L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$45
14 days−$29
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 31% −$93
other 20% +$18
tech 17% −$110
weather 16% −$319
crypto 11% −$199
sports 4% +$13
politics 0% +$31
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -7.0% -15.8% 77% 36% -13.5%
≤30d 155 -2.7% -12.0% 80% 25% -11.4%
≤90d 603 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 30% -10.7%
all 770 -1.7% -11.1% 78% 26% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 26% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 8% -19.5%
15% -27.3% 3% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$253
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses597 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)770 / 771
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 770 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Up 95¢ 94¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$16 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $46 +$5 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $45 +$4 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 +$2 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$4 -20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 +$4 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$2 +3%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$5 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$6 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $37 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$14 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$4 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$7 +20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $129 +$11 +9%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $65 +$3 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $60 +$2 +4%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $103 +$15 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $36 −$34 -95%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $70 +$10 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $62 +$8 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $46 +$16 +34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 29 $40 −$40 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $23 +$2 +10%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $20 +$1 +7%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $25 −$15 -58%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $88 +$17 +20%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 27? May 28 $31 −$30 -97%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $22 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $14 −$3 -21%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $79 +$12 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $22 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $56 +$23 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $73 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5PM ET May 26 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 26 $5 −$4 -70%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $77 +$1 +1%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $72 +$5 +7%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $351 −$280 -80%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $11 −$1 -12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $49 −$1 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $286 +$19 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 26? May 25 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $139 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $116 56m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 99¢ $117 57m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 85¢ $101 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $52 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $6 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $1 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $43 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $46 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $43 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $45 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $15 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $20 33h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 75¢ $18 40h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $22 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $21 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 92¢ $45 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 84¢ $41 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 89¢ $4 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 89¢ $5 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 89¢ $6 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 89¢ $5 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 89¢ $13 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 89¢ $21 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 89¢ $13 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 89¢ $10 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 89¢ $4 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 86¢ $80 2d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 92¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.78 · official $114.78 (match) · 3500 history records